Lately I have been seeing an awful lot of talk related to "market tops" "need for a pullback" "over-extended" etc. However, I continue to wonder why anyone feels compelled to be the first one to officially post a "top" or officially post a "continuation" in trend. Presuming that 99.9999% of the community will not be attempting to relieve themselves of multi-billion dollar positions, it doesn't make much sense to me why so many feel compelled to attempt to predict a future a market direction.
Regardless of whether or not you are a fundamentalist or technician, attempting to front run a market seems to be a zero sum game in my opinion. From a fundamental perspective, one would conduct an in depth analysis of the future cash flow potential of an organization, determine the value of the enterprise, etc etc and act accordingly. As technicians, one enters a position based on an edge they identify through technical analysis, a defined risk/reward and trade a stock/group of stocks. Through experience and hours of nightly work, the setups that present themselves are often indicative of the opportunities for the technician. A combination of the two strategies would conduct their business through a blend of both philosophies.
Either philosophy, whether it be fundamental or technical does not require the average investor to look into a crystal ball and attempt to predict the future. As conditions change, we react. The market does not price in one's crystal ball predictions, nor does either of the aforementioned investing philosophies require such bold convictions. The market does not consider whether those predictions are right or wrong.
Having an overall view of the markets is one thing, failing to realize the likelihood such predictions will be wrong is entirely different. The latter is exponentially more valuable than the former in my opinion.
Embrace change and realize personal convictions related to future outcomes are only as valuable as the market reveals them to be.
